Temporal trends of sex differences for COVID-19 infection, hospitalisation, severe disease, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death: a meta-analysis of 229 studies covering over 10M patients.

Background: This review aims to investigate the association of sex with the risk of multiple COVID-19 health outcomes, ranging from infection to death. Methods: Pubmed and Embase were searched through September 2020. We considered studies reporting sex and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. Qualitative and quantitative data were extracted using standardised electronic data extraction forms with the assessment of Newcastle Ottawa Scale for risk of bias. Pooled trends in infection, hospitalization, severity, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death rate were calculated separately for men and women and subsequently random-effects meta-analyses on relative risks (RR) for sex was performed. Results: Of 10,160 titles, 229 studies comprising 10,417,452 patients were included in the analyses. Methodological quality of the included studies was high (6.9 out of 9). Men had a higher risk for infection with COVID-19 than women (RR = 1.14, 95%CI: 1.07 to 1.21). When infected, they also had a higher risk for hospitalization (RR = 1.33, 95%CI: 1.27 to 1.41), higher risk for severe COVID-19 (RR = 1.22, 95%CI: 1.17 to 1.27), higher need for Intensive Care (RR = 1.41, 95%CI: 1.28 to 1.55), and higher risk of death (RR = 1.35, 95%CI: 1.28 to 1.43). Within the period studied, the RR for infection and severity increased for men compared to women, while the RR for mortality decreased for men compared to women. Conclusions: Meta-analyses on 229 studies comprising over 10 million patients showed that men have a higher risk for COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, disease severity, ICU admission and death. The relative risks of infection, disease severity and death for men versus women showed temporal trends with lower relative risks for infection and severity of disease and higher relative risk for death at the beginning of the pandemic compared to the end of our inclusion period. PROSPERO registration: CRD42020180085 (20/04/2020).

Ethnic minority status as social determinant for COVID-19 infection, hospitalisation, severity, ICU admission and deaths in the early phase of the pandemic: a meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Early literature on the COVID-19 pandemic indicated striking ethnic inequalities in SARS-CoV-2-related outcomes. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to describe the presence and magnitude of associations between ethnic groups and COVID-19-related outcomes. METHODS: PubMed and Embase were searched from December 2019 through September 2020. Studies reporting extractable data (ie, crude numbers, and unadjusted or adjusted risk/ORs) by ethnic group on any of the five studied outcomes: confirmed COVID-19 infection in the general population, hospitalisation among infected patients, and disease severity, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality among hospitalised patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, were included using standardised electronic data extraction forms. We pooled data from published studies using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: 58 studies were included from seven countries in four continents, mostly retrospective cohort studies, covering a total of almost 10 million individuals from the first wave until the summer of 2020. The risk of diagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection was higher in most ethnic minority groups than their White counterparts in North American and Europe with the differences remaining in the US ethnic minorities after adjustment for confounders and explanatory factors. Among people with confirmed infection, African-Americans and Hispanic-Americans were also more likely than White-Americans to be hospitalised with SARS-CoV-2 infection. No increased risk of COVID-19 outcomes (ie, severe disease, ICU admission and death) was found among ethnic minority patients once hospitalised, except for a higher risk of death among ethnic minorities in Brazil. CONCLUSION: The risk of SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis was higher in most ethnic minorities, but once hospitalised, no clear inequalities exist in COVID-19 outcomes except for the high risk of death in ethnic minorities in Brazil. The findings highlight the necessity to tackle disparities in social determinants of health, preventative opportunities and delay in healthcare use. Ethnic minorities should specifically be considered in policies mitigating negative impacts of the pandemic. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020180085.

Donation-induced iron depletion is significantly associated with low hemoglobin at subsequent donations.

BACKGROUND: Blood donation is associated with a loss of hemoglobin (Hb)-bound iron. Hb levels recover relatively fast by using stored iron. However, it takes more time to replenish iron stores, potentially resulting in iron deficiency. STUDY DESIGN: Hb and ferritin levels were measured in 5056 new, first-time, and repeat whole blood donors. We investigated whether increasing numbers of donations are associated with lower ferritin levels. Furthermore, we tested whether low ferritin levels are associated with low-Hb deferral at the subsequent donation attempt by performing logistic regression adjusted for age and stratified by sex. RESULTS: Whereas mean Hb levels are relatively stable, ferritin levels significantly decrease with increasing numbers of donations and were approximately 50% lower for donors with >50 donations compared with those with 2-10 donations. Despite the poor correlation of ferritin and Hb levels, cross-sectional, iron-deficient donors (ferritin <15 ng/ml) had 21.8 (8.5-55.6) higher odds in men, 10.1 (6.1-16.5) in premenopausal women, and 11.7 (5.2-26.4) in postmenopausal women for Hb deferral at a subsequent visit. DISCUSSION: To conclude, repeated donations may induce iron deficiency, which corresponds with an over tenfold increased risk of having insufficiently restored Hb levels at a subsequent donation attempt. Longer donation intervals and/or higher dietary or supplemental iron intake are warranted to prevent accumulated iron depletion and subsequent low-Hb deferral in whole blood donors.

Demographic risk factors for COVID-19 infection, severity, ICU admission and death: a meta-analysis of 59 studies.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to describe the associations of age and sex with the risk of COVID-19 in different severity stages ranging from infection to death. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: PubMed and Embase through 4 May 2020. STUDY SELECTION: We considered cohort and case-control studies that evaluated differences in age and sex on the risk of COVID-19 infection, disease severity, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: We screened and included studies using standardised electronic data extraction forms and we pooled data from published studies and data acquired by contacting authors using random effects meta-analysis. We assessed the risk of bias using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. RESULTS: We screened 11.550 titles and included 59 studies comprising 36.470 patients in the analyses. The methodological quality of the included papers was high (8.2 out of 9). Men had a higher risk for infection with COVID-19 than women (relative risk (RR) 1.08, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.12). When infected, they also had a higher risk for severe COVID-19 disease (RR 1.18, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.27), a higher need for intensive care (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.74) and a higher risk of death (RR 1.50, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.91). The analyses also showed that patients aged 70 years and above have a higher infection risk (RR 1.65, 95% CI 1.50 to 1.81), a higher risk for severe COVID-19 disease (RR 2.05, 95% CI 1.27 to 3.32), a higher need for intensive care (RR 2.70, 95% CI 1.59 to 4.60) and a higher risk of death once infected (RR 3.61, 95% CI 2.70 to 4.84) compared with patients younger than 70 years. CONCLUSIONS: Meta-analyses on 59 studies comprising 36.470 patients showed that men and patients aged 70 and above have a higher risk for COVID-19 infection, severe disease, ICU admission and death. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020180085.

Dietary intake of heme iron is associated with ferritin and hemoglobin levels in Dutch blood donors: results from Donor InSight.

Whole blood donors, especially frequently donating donors, have a risk of iron deficiency and low hemoglobin levels, which may affect their health and eligibility to donate. Lifestyle behaviors, such as dietary iron intake and physical activity, may influence iron stores and thereby hemoglobin levels. We aimed to investigate whether dietary iron intake and questionnaire-based moderate-to-vigorous physical activity were associated with hemoglobin levels, and whether ferritin levels mediated these associations. In Donor InSight-III, a Dutch cohort study of blood and plasma donors, data on heme and non-heme iron intake (mg/day), moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (10 minutes/day), hemoglobin levels (mmol/L) and ferritin levels (µg/L) were available in 2,323 donors (1,074 male). Donors with higher heme iron intakes (regression coefficients (ß) in men and women: 0.160 and 0.065 mmol/L higher hemoglobin per 1 mg of heme iron, respectively) and lower non-heme iron intakes (ß: -0.014 and -0.017, respectively) had higher hemoglobin levels, adjusted for relevant confounders. Ferritin levels mediated these associations (indirect effect (95% confidence interval) in men and women respectively: 0.074 (0.045; 0.111) and 0.061 (0.030; 0.096) for heme and -0.003 (-0.008;0.001) and -0.008 (-0.013;-0.003) for non-heme). Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity was negatively associated with hemoglobin levels in men only (ß: -0.005), but not mediated by ferritin levels. In conclusion, higher heme and lower non-heme iron intake were associated with higher hemoglobin levels in donors, via higher ferritin levels. This indicates that donors with high heme iron intake may be more capable of maintaining iron stores to recover hemoglobin levels after blood donation.

Ferritin measurement IN Donors-Effectiveness of iron Monitoring to diminish iron deficiency and low haemoglobin in whole blood donors (FIND'EM): study protocol for a stepped wedge cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Blood donors are at risk for reduced iron stores, because of which donor iron monitoring received increased attention in the last decade. Despite the importance for donor health, international consensus on an appropriate policy for iron monitoring is lacking. Therefore, we conduct a trial to evaluate to what extent ferritin-guided donation intervals are effective in increasing haemoglobin and ferritin levels, decreasing low-haemoglobin deferral, increasing donor return and improving the health of whole blood donors in the Netherlands. METHODS: Sanquin Blood Bank is implementing ferritin-guided donation intervals to prevent donors from increasing iron loss at repeated donations. Using a stepped wedge cluster randomised trial approach, the design involves a random crossover of 29 clusters of blood collection centres from the existing policy without ferritin measurements to a ferritin-guided donation interval policy. This new policy includes ferritin measurements for all new donors and at every 5th whole blood donation, extending donation intervals to 6 months if ferritin is 15-≤ 30 ng/mL and to 12 months if ferritin is < 15 ng/mL. We measure ferritin levels of whole blood donors from stored plasma samples and collect haemoglobin levels and information on low-haemoglobin deferral and donor return from the donor database before, during and after the implementation period. We measure donor health during and after the implementation period using questionnaires, assessing physical and mental wellbeing and iron deficiency- and donation-related symptoms. We use multilevel analyses to investigate differences in ferritin and haemoglobin levels, low-haemoglobin deferral rates, donor return and donor health from whole blood donors, between blood collection centres that have versus those that have not yet implemented the ferritin-guided donation interval policy. DISCUSSION: This stepped wedge cluster randomised trial will provide insight into the effectiveness of ferritin-guided donation intervals in lowering iron deficiency, decreasing donor deferrals due to low haemoglobin and improving donor health. We will evaluate a policy that is implemented nationwide in a real-life setting. Our study is therefore not limited to a small experimental setting and the results will guide policymakers seeking an appropriate policy for iron monitoring. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The Dutch trial registry NTR6738 . Registered on 29 September 2017. Retrospectively registered.

Variations in hemoglobin measurement and eligibility criteria across blood donation services are associated with differing low-hemoglobin deferral rates: a BEST Collaborative study.

BACKGROUND: Determination of blood donor hemoglobin (Hb) levels is a pre-requisite to ensure donor safety and blood product quality. We aimed to identify Hb measurement practices across blood donation services and to what extent differences associate with low-Hb deferral rates. METHODS: An online survey was performed among Biomedical Excellence for Safer Transfusion (BEST) Collaborative members, extended with published data. Multivariable negative-binomial regression models were built to estimate adjusted associations of minimum donation intervals, Hb cut-offs (high, ≥13.5 g/dL in men or ≥ 12.5 g/dL in women, vs. lower values), iron monitoring (yes/no), providing or prescribing iron supplementation (yes/no), post-versus pre-donation Hb measurement and geographical location (Asian vs. rest), with low-Hb deferral rates. RESULTS: Data were included from 38 blood services. Low-Hb deferral rates varied from 0.11% to 8.81% among men and 0.84% to 31.85% among women. Services with longer minimum donation intervals had significantly lower deferral rates among both women (rate ratio, RR 0.53, 95%CI 0.33-0.84) and men (RR 0.53, 95%CI 0.31-0.90). In women, iron supplementation was associated with lower Hb deferral rates (RR 0.47, 95%CI 0.23-0.94). Finally, being located in Asia was associated with higher low-Hb deferral rates; RR 9.10 (95%CI 3.89-21.27) for women and 6.76 (95%CI 2.45-18.68) for men. CONCLUSION: Differences in Hb measurement and eligibility criteria, particularly longer donation intervals and iron supplementation in women, are associated with variations in low-Hb deferral rates. These insights could help improve both blood donation service efficiency and donor care.

Utility of zinc protoporphyrin in management of whole blood donors.

BACKGROUND: Deferral for low hemoglobin (Hb) increases the likelihood that donors do not return for future donations. Zinc protoporphyrin (ZPP) has been described as a sensitive marker of iron-deficient erythropoiesis, before Hb decreases. It is a relatively cheap, rapid, and easy-to-perform measurement in a drop of whole blood. To assess the utility of ZPP measurement in donor management we examined whether ZPP and Hb levels among first-time donors differ from repeat donors. We further explored whether ZPP increases over subsequent donations at a donor population level and whether increasing ZPP levels coincide with decreasing Hb levels and donor deferral. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We included first-time (n = 4983) and repeat (n = 3533) whole blood donors from the ZPP and Iron in the Netherlands Cohort (ZINC) study. ZPP and Hb were measured at each subsequent donation during a 4-year period after inclusion in the study. RESULTS: Median ZPP levels were higher in repeat than in first-time donors. In first-time donors, especially women, ZPP levels were increased with a corresponding decline in Hb levels over subsequent donations. ZPP levels were increased among first-time donors deferred for low Hb. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that adding ZPP to Hb measurements in the daily blood collection setting, especially for first-time donors and first-time female donors may add to the identification of a donor subpopulation with low functional iron stores.

Associations of health status with subsequent blood donor behavior-An alternative perspective on the Healthy Donor Effect from Donor InSight.

INTRODUCTION: In donor health research, the 'Healthy Donor Effect' (HDE) often biases study results and hampers their interpretation. This refers to the fact that donors are a selected 'healthier' subset of a population due to both donor selection procedures and self-selection. Donors with long versus short donor careers, or with high versus low donation intensities are often compared to avoid this HDE, but underlying health differences might also cause these differences in behaviour. Our aim was to estimate to what extent a donor´s perceived health status associates with donation cessation and intensity. METHODS: All active whole blood donors participating in Donor InSight (2007-2009; 11,107 male; 12,616 female) were included in this prospective cohort study. We performed Cox survival and Poisson regression analyses to assess whether self-reported health status, medication use, disease diagnosed by a physician and recently having consulted a general practitioner (GP) or specialist were associated with (time to) donation cessation and donation intensity. RESULTS: At the end of 2013, 44% of the donors in this study had stopped donating. Donors in self-rated good health had a 15% lower risk to stop donating compared to donors in perceived poorer health. Medication use, disease diagnoses and consulting a GP were associated with a 20-40% increased risk to stop donating and a lower donation intensity, when adjusting for age, number of donations and new donor status. Both men and women reporting good health made on average 10% more donations. CONCLUSION: Donors with a "good" health status were less likely to stop donating blood and tended to donate blood more often than donors with perceived poorer health status. This implies that the HDE is an important source of selection bias in studies on donor health and this includes studies where comparisons within donors are made. This HDE should be adjusted for appropriately when assessing health effects of donation and donors' health status may provide estimates of future donation behavior.

Red cell alloimmunisation in patients with different types of infections.

Red cell alloantigen exposure can cause alloantibody-associated morbidity. Murine models have suggested that inflammation modulates red cell alloimmunisation. This study quantifies alloimmunisation risks during infectious episodes in humans. We performed a multicentre case-control study within a source population of patients receiving their first and subsequent red cell transfusions during an 8-year follow-up period. Patients developing a first transfusion-induced red cell alloantibody (N = 505) were each compared with two similarly exposed, but non-alloimmunised controls (N = 1010) during a 5-week 'alloimmunisation risk period' using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Transfusions during 'severe' bacterial (tissue-invasive) infections were associated with increased risks of alloantibody development [adjusted relative risk (RR) 1·34, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0·97-1·85], especially when these infections were accompanied with long-standing fever (RR 3·06, 95% CI 1·57-5·96). Disseminated viral disorders demonstrated a trend towards increased risks (RR 2·41, 95% CI 0·89-6·53), in apparent contrast to a possible protection associated with Gram-negative bacteraemia (RR 0·58, 95% CI 0·13-1·14). 'Simple' bacterial infections, Gram-positive bacteraemia, fungal infections, maximum C-reactive protein values and leucocytosis were not associated with red cell alloimmunisation. These findings are consistent with murine models. Confirmatory research is needed before patients likely to develop alloantibodies may be identified based on their infectious conditions at time of transfusion.

Red-blood-cell alloimmunisation in relation to antigens' exposure and their immunogenicity: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Matching donor red blood cells based on recipient antigens prevents alloimmunisation. Knowledge about the immunogenicity of red-blood-cell antigens can help optimise risk-adapted matching strategies. We set out to assess the immunogenicity of red-blood-cell antigens. METHODS: In an incident new-user cohort of previously non-transfused, non-alloimmunised white patients receiving non-extended matched red-blood-cell transfusions in six Dutch hospitals between 2006 and 2013, we determined the cumulative number of mismatched red-blood-cell units per patient. We used multiple imputation to address missing antigen data. Using Kaplan-Meier analysis, we estimated cumulative alloimmunisation incidences per mismatched antigen dose as a measure of immunogenicity. FINDINGS: Of 54 347 patients assessed, 21 512 were included in our study. Alloantibodies occurred in 474 (2·2%) of all transfused patients, with cumulative alloimmunisation incidences increasing up to 7·7% (95% CI 4·9-11·2) after 40 units received. The antigens C, c, E, K, and Jk(a) were responsible for 78% of all alloimmunisations in our cohort. K, E, and C(w) were the most immunogenic antigens (cumulative immunisation incidences after 2 mismatched units of 2·3% [95% CI 1·0-4·8] for K, 1·5% [0·6-3·0] for E, and 1·2% [0·0-10·8] for C(w)). These antigens were 8·7 times (for K), 5·4 times (for E), and 4·6 times (for C(w)) as immunogenic as Fy(a). The next most immunogenic antigens were, in order, e (1·9 times as immunogenic as Fy(a)), Jk(a) (1·9 times), and c (1·6 times). INTERPRETATION: Red-blood-cell antigens vary in their potency to evoke a humoral immune response. Our findings highlight that donor-recipient red-blood-cell matching strategies will be most efficient when primarily focusing on prevention of C, c, E, K, and Jk(a) alloimmunisation. Matching for Fy(a) is of lower clinical relevance. Variations of antigen frequencies determined by ethnic background prevent extrapolating these conclusions to non-white populations. FUNDING: None.

Early occurrence of red blood cell alloimmunization in patients with sickle cell disease.

Red blood cell (RBC) alloimmunization is a major complication of transfusion therapy in sickle cell disease (SCD). Identification of high-risk patients is hampered by lack of studies that take the cumulative transfusion exposure into account. In this retrospective cohort study among previously non-transfused SCD patients in the Netherlands, we aimed to elucidate the association between the cumulative transfusion exposure, first alloimmunization and independent risk factors. A total of 245 patients received 11 952 RBC units. Alloimmunization occurred in 43 patients (18%), half of them formed their first alloantibody before the 8th unit. In patients with exposure to non-extended matched transfusions (ABO and RhD) the cumulative alloimmunization risk increased up to 35% after 60 transfused units. This was significantly higher compared to a general transfused population (HR 6.6, CI 4.2-10.6). Receiving the first transfusion after the age of 5 was an independent risk factor for alloimmunization (HR 2.3, CI 1.0-5.1). Incidental, episodic transfusions in comparison to chronic scheme transfusions (HR 2.3, CI 0.9-6.0), and exposure to non-extended matched units in comparison to extended matching (HR 2.0, CI 0.9-4.6) seemed to confer a higher alloimmunization risk. The majority of first alloantibodies are formed after minor transfusion exposure, substantiating suggestions of a responder phenotype in SCD and stressing the need for risk factor identification. In this study, older age at first transfusion, episodic transfusions and non-extended matched transfusions appeared to be risk factors for alloimmunization. Am. J. Hematol. 91:763-769, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Immunosuppressants and alloimmunization against red blood cell transfusions.

BACKGROUND: Patients receiving red blood cell (RBC) transfusions are at risk of developing alloantibodies against donor RBC antigens. The risk of alloimmunization is dependent on the number of units administered and patient's genetic predisposition, but has also been suggested to be modulated by a patient's clinical profile. Our aim was to examine whether immunosuppressants suppress the development of clinically relevant RBC antibodies. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A two-center case-referent study was performed where case patients and control patients were sampled from all consecutive patients (17,750 patients) who had received their first and subsequent RBC transfusions in a 5-year period in the study centers. Cases were all patients with a first detected RBC alloantibody preceded by negative antibody screens. Control patients were two-to-one matched to the case patients on the number of RBC transfusions. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between immunosuppressant exposure and the subsequent occurrence of RBC alloimmunization. RESULTS: A total of 156 case patients and 312 control patients in the study received a median of six transfusions (interquartile range, 3-11). Among the total study population, 207 patients received immunosuppressive therapy, with 142 patients receiving only corticosteroids, four receiving only other immunosuppressants, and 61 receiving both. The incidence of alloimmunization among patients using immunosuppressants was lower than among other patients receiving RBCs (adjusted relative rate, 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.91). CONCLUSION: Our findings support a considerably lower risk of alloimmunization with the use of immunosuppressive medications.

Intensive red blood cell transfusions and risk of alloimmunization.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to allogenic red blood cells (RBCs) may lead to formation of antibodies against nonself-antigens in transfused patients. While alloimmunization rates are known to increase with the number of transfusions, the transfusion course in patients can vary from receiving multiple units during a single transfusion event or getting them dispersed over a long(er) period. In this study we compared the immunization risk between different transfusion intensities. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: An incident new-user cohort study was conducted among consecutive transfused patients at two university medical centers. All patients who received their first RBC transfusion within the study period from January 2005 to December 2011 were eligible. Intensive transfusions were defined as at least 5, at least 10, and at least 20 RBC units within 48 hours. Alloimmunization hazard ratios (HRs), comparing patients receiving intensive transfusions to patients never receiving intensive transfusions, were estimated. RESULTS: The study cohort was composed of 5812 patients who had received a median of 7 (interquartile range, 4-12) units. RBC alloantibodies were formed by 156 patients. The adjusted Cox regression HRs for alloimmunization, with number of units as the time covariate and adjusted for patient age, sex, and follow-up time after first transfusion, ranged from 0.8 to 1.2 (95% confidence interval, 0.4-2.6). CONCLUSION: The occurrence of RBC alloimmunization in patients receiving intensive transfusions did not differ significantly from patients receiving nonintensive transfusions.

Effect of storage of red blood cells on alloimmunization.

BACKGROUND: Red blood cells (RBCs) undergo changes during storage. Various studies have suggested a higher risk of adverse and often multifactorial clinical outcomes associated with older-stored RBCs. Our aim therefore was to examine if storage of transfused RBCs is also associated with the risk of RBC-specific alloantibody formation. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A two-center retrospective case-referent study was performed where case patients and control subjects were sampled from all consecutive patients who had received their first and subsequent RBC transfusions in one of the two centers only. Cases were defined as patients who developed a first RBC alloantibody. Control subjects were patients without detectable RBC alloantibodies, who were matched to the case patients regarding number of RBC transfusions. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between storage time of RBCS and the occurrence of alloimmunization. RESULTS: A total of 144 cases and 286 controls were selected for our study, who had received a total 5478 RBC units. Comparing patients receiving units stored shorter than a certain number of days versus older units (with various storage periods up to 4 weeks) did not reveal an association or a trend between alloimmunization risk and storage time categories. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that storage times of transfused RBCs between 1 and 4 weeks do not affect the risk of alloimmunization.

Association vs. causality in transfusion medicine: understanding multivariable analysis in prediction vs. etiologic research.

In the current medical literature, etiologic and prediction research aims are frequently confused. Investigators tend to use principles from prediction research for their etiologic research questions, which results in misleading interpretation of risk factor findings at hand. We used a questionnaire-based survey to quantify the proportion of International Society of Blood Transfusion (ISBT) 2012, Cancun, visitors who felt confident with a causal interpretation of a stepwise logistic regression model. We designed and distributed a short online questionnaire survey addressing questions about a constructed abstract entitled "Association of transfusion and clinical outcomes in a large cohort" among the participants of ISBT 2012, Cancun. In addition to asking questions about the demographics (age, sex, country of employment, and highest education level) of the participants, we designed 7 statements representing possible interpretations of the findings presented in the abstract and asked the participants to mark Agree, Disagree, or Do Not Know for each statement. Based on the responses to these statements, we quantified the proportion of participants who inferred causality from stepwise multivariable models built to examine a question of association (or prediction).Thirty percent to 40% of the respondents agreed that a stepwise model was a valid method to adjust for confounding, and 60% of them agreed to a causal interpretation of a model built for prediction purposes. These findings suggest that a large proportion of ISBT visitors confuse etiology with prediction in the published transfusion medicine research. Using the results as a platform, we aim to delineate the distinction between etiologic and prediction research, issues of confounding accompanying these research aims and how a multivariable model deals with confounding.

Risk Factors for Alloimmunisation after red blood Cell Transfusions (R-FACT): a case cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Individuals exposed to red blood cell alloantigens through transfusion, pregnancy or transplantation may produce antibodies against the alloantigens. Alloantibodies can pose serious clinical problems such as delayed haemolytic reactions and logistic problems, for example, to obtain timely and properly matched transfusion blood for patients in which new alloantibodies are detected. OBJECTIVE: The authors hypothesise that the particular clinical conditions (eg, used medication, concomitant infection, cellular immunity) during which transfusions are given may contribute to the risk of immunisation. The aim of this research was to examine the association between clinical, environmental and genetic characteristics of the recipient of erythrocyte transfusions and the risk against erythrocyte alloimmunisation during that transfusion episode. METHODS AND ANALYSIS STUDY DESIGN: Incident case-cohort study. SETTING: Secondary care, nationwide study (within the Netherlands) including seven hospitals, from January 2005 to December 2011. STUDY POPULATION: Consecutive red cell transfused patients at the study centres. INCLUSION: The study cohort comprises of consecutive red blood cell transfused patients at the study centre. EXCLUSION: Patients with transfusions before the study period and/or pre-existing alloantibodies.Cases defined as first time alloantibody formers; Controls defined as transfused individuals matched (on number of transfusions) to cases and have not formed an alloantibody. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Logistic regression models will be used to assess the association between the risk to develop antibodies and potential risk factors, adjusted for other risk factors. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Approval at each local ethics regulatory committee will be obtained. Data will be coded for privacy reasons. Patients will be sent a letter and an information brochure explaining the purpose of the study. A consent form in presence of the study coordinator will be signed before the blood taking commences. Investigators will submit progress summary of the study to study sponsor regularly. Investigators will notify the accredited ethics board of the end of the study within a period of 8 weeks.